Friday, 9 December 2016

Radicalism is Winning

The brexit referendum and the USA presidency election have two things in common: both were unexpected (neither was predicted by the polls) and in both cases the establishment lost to radically new ideas.

The radicals won by tapping into deep seated resentment against the status quo, offering clear and simple alternatives, and refusing to get into the nitty gritty of exactly how these alternatives would be achieved. Credible subterfuge was also important: in both cases there were talented bullshitters leading the charge.

We might well weep for the quality of discourse on matters of great public interest, but that's the modern world and it has been for some time. Here in Aoteoroa we're very familiar with the set-up, having spent the last eight years with the PM (including his office) controlling the news agenda including through the use of very dirty tactics.

Many of our ministers are old established incrementalists though, so we are potentially vulnerable to the same kind of radical upheavals as have occurred in the UK and USA this year.

The situation is a bit like working in an industry that is vulnerable to disruption through digital technology. If you can see disruption coming, the best strategy is often to disrupt yourself rather than have it done to you.

All the more so on political matters where there are very different radical new directions available.

So in the spirit of the times, here are a few themes where radical initiatives are worth considering.
  1. Protect the Environment. Taken seriously, this would disrupt agriculture and transport at least. We'd be investing in electric & hydrogen vehicles and the associated infrastructure. Agricultural science funding would be re-directed towards much more benign methods and farmers would face direct taxes(pdf) & subsidies(pdf) designed to price the spillover effects of their activities.
  2. Promote the Young. Our tax & welfare system favours the old & the established over the young and precarious, partly because our political leaders tend to be old & established themselves. There are some positive signs here, notably the the tax policy just announced by TOP and the recruitment by the Greens of Chloe Swarbrick and Hayley Holt as candidates for next year's election.
  3. Provide Public Goods. I suspect there are more examples of un-recognised (and hence under-provided) public goods, but the one on my mind this week is the gathering and reporting of hard news. We have largely left this to the market, but hard news does not meet the economic standards for doing so. I will have more to say on this shortly.  

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